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Additional resources for Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Fall 2009
This upward bias is larger, the more the ZLB constrains policy. I correct for this downward bias by adjusting the inflation target in the policy rule. 20 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2009 expectation. 12 Thus, I stop short of finding optimal inflation targets. I return to the issue of the costs of steady-state inflation briefly in the concluding section. The top panel of table 2 reports the simulated outcomes under the classic Taylor rule, assuming the shocks are drawn using a normal distribution from the covariance matrix computed from the full sample of disturbances (1968–2002).
The experience of the past decade suggests that this assumption is too stringent and may overstate the future effects of the ZLB by ignoring the ways in which fiscal policy can substitute for monetary policy. The past decade has seen the active use of discretionary countercyclical fiscal policy in many countries. For example, Japan aggressively used fiscal policy to stimulate the economy during the 1990s and in the current recession. The International Monetary Fund (2009) expects discretionary fiscal stimulus to average 1 percent of GDP in the G-20 economies over 2008–10, above and beyond automatic stabilizers and measures to support the financial sector.
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