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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2010 by David H. Romer, Justin Wolfers

By David H. Romer, Justin Wolfers

Brookings Papers on monetary job (BPEA) presents educational and enterprise economists, executive officers, and contributors of the monetary and company groups with well timed study on present monetary matters. Contents: Editors' precis The exertions marketplace within the nice Recession through Michael W. L. Elsby (University of Michigan), Bart Hobijn (Federal Reserve financial institution of San Francisco), and Ay eg??l ahin (Federal Reserve financial institution of latest York) The source of revenue- and Expenditure- part Estimates of U.S. Output development through Jeremy J. Nalewaik (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve approach) The Rug Rat Race by means of Garey Ramey and Valerie A. Ramey (University of California, San Diego) The challenge by means of Alan Greenspan (Greenspan affiliates LLC) The preliminary effect of the main issue on rising industry nations through Olivier J. Blanchard (International financial Fund and MIT), Mitali Das (International financial Fund), and Hamid Faruqee (International financial Fund) Geographic version in wellbeing and fitness Care: The function of non-public Markets through Tomas J. Philipson (University of Chicago), Seth A. Seabury (RAND Corporation), Lee M. Lockwood (University of Chicago), Dana P. Goldman (University of Southern California), and Darius Lakdawalla (Univeresity of Southern California) ISSN 007-2303

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As Ben Bernanke (1983) points out, such a reduction in the probability of “bad news” will increase the likelihood that firms will make the decisions to invest and hire, which are costly to reverse. There are also reasons to imagine that the factors that explain the jobless recoveries of the 1990–91 and 2001 recessions are likely to be absent during the current episode. qxd 30 8/11/10 12:06 PM Page 30 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2010 (2009) argue that labor hoarding can explain the jobless recoveries following the two earlier recessions.

Monthly data. The simulation assumes that outflow rates for each duration group recover at the same rate as in the 1983–84 recovery. For purposes of comparison, the rebound in the aggregate outflow rate in that period is plotted. with initial condition u0t given by the unemployment inflow derived in section II. It follows that the unemployment share of duration group d is given by (12) ω dt +1 = (1 − Fd −1t ) ( ut ut +1 ) ω d −1t . Equation 12 has significant implications for the path of the outflow rate during the recovery.

Unemployment Outflow Probabilities by Duration of Unemployment, 1976–2009 a Percent of unemployed 60 Less than 1 month 50 1–3 months 40 30 3–6 months More than 6 months 20 10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Authors’ calculations using CPS data. a. Quarterly averages of monthly data. Shading indicates recessions. B on unemployment flows by group, the cyclicality of outflow rates displays an extraordinary regularity across duration groups. 37 However, equation 10 also reveals that duration dependence can affect the cyclicality of the aggregate outflow rate through changes in the duration structure of unemployment, Δωdt.

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