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China's and India's Challenge to Latin America: Opportunity by Daniel Lederman, Marcelo Olarreaga, Guillermo E. Perry

By Daniel Lederman, Marcelo Olarreaga, Guillermo E. Perry

The industrial successes of China and India are considered with admiration but in addition with obstacle as a result results that the expansion of those Asian economies could have at the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) area. The facts in ''China's and India's problem to Latin America'' shows that convinced production and repair industries in a few international locations were negatively suffering from chinese language and Indian pageant in 3rd markets and that LAC imports from China and India were linked to modest unemployment and adjustment expenses in production industries. The e-book additionally presents large proof of optimistic mixture results for LAC economies linked to China's and India's higher presence in international exports, monetary flows, and innovation. chinese language and Indian development is developing new construction probabilities for LAC economies, relatively in sectors that depend on traditional assets and clinical wisdom.

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The other eight service subsectors considered exhibit either no impact or a positive and statistically significant impact on LAC exports to the United States, again suggesting some complementarities. 8 Imports of Services by the United States, by Subregion, 1994–2004 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 year The Caribbean China India Source: Freund in chapter 7 of this volume. Note: SCM = South America, Central America, and Mexico.

Because manufacturing employment declined by 31 percent over the sample period, the increase in import penetration can at most explain 20 percent of the observed loss in manufacturing employment. The other 80 percent had other causes (labor legislation, privatization, technological change, and the like). Moreover, the increased importance of China as a source of imports had an almost negligible marginal impact on the decline in labor demand associated with the increase in overall imports. 02 percent decline in the growth of Argentina’s labor demand.

The impact of China on LAC exports to third markets is captured by the change in China’s exports to third markets. A negative and statistically significant coefficient on this last variable for an industry would indicate that in that industry Chinese exports are hurting LAC exporters of the same products. S. a. a. a. a. 038 2000–04 Brazil Chile Mexico Source: Hanson and Robertson in chapter 5 of this volume. a. = not applicable. S. GDP growth over 2000–04 equals that for 1995–2000, and China’s export-supply capacity remains constant over the sample period (1995–2004) at levels equal to 1995 values.

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